Driven by an unexpected surge in demand and record profitability in the last 12 months, owners have returned to the newbuilding market to capitalise on the global requirements for additional capacity.

While war chests have evidently been sufficiently strengthened to prompt a sharp increase in tonnage acquisitions and newbuilding orders, it would be wrong to dismiss the prospect of any future risks down the line for investors.

A carbon-free maritime sector may seem a distant prospect, but the largest liner operators are aready making plans to comply with regulatory measures well in advance of the key 2050 deadline. However, many questions need to be answered and challenging decisions need to be made.

Liner spot freight rates have recently defied traditional and current logic, reaching record levels. In early-March 2020 most freight analysts predicted Armageddon for the liner sector with cargo volumes falling off the proverbial cliff. What has since transpired?

Liner operators have decided on their strategies to cater for the IMO’s low-sulphur regulations from January 2020, but their commercial reactions and costs will vary, and so will impact on profitability next year and beyond.  

The latest round of tariff increases imposed by the US on Chinese-made goods will, we believe, impose different levels of potential risk on the major liner operators. Second-time around, the wider market ramifications could also be more significant. 

Is it business as usual for ocean carriers as they continue to buy large vessel assets? In a rapidly changing market, it is important that shipping lines have sufficient liquidity to pay for assets that some would argue are, in certain cases, not even required.

This week's Insight has come from one of our new colleagues and industry veteran Neil Dekker, formerly of Drewry and the Informa and Safmarine groups, who has covered the liner sector for over 25 years.