Container sector stakeholders have benefitted substantially from the extended container supercycle, but do they face tangible risks in the short-to-mid-terms?

Back in March 2020, few (if any) container industry stakeholders could have expected liner operator profitability to surge (and remain on that trajectory) to the extent it has over the ensuing two years. Developments in the container sector were largely counter-intuitive for 2020, and trends on both the revenue and profit fronts have continued to exceed previous records of performance on a sustained quarterly basis since mid-2020.

Initiated by the pandemic, pressure on the current global supply chain is likely to continue for the near to-mid-term, providing opportunities and risks for liner operators, and challenges for cargo owners

The COVID-19 pandemic has not only exacerbated long-standing shortfalls in the global supply chain, but it has also created new pressure points, including crew quarantines, local port shutdowns, and labour shortages. During the spring and summer of 2020, while ports mostly remained open to support continuing supply of essential goods, non-essential trades were actively deferred. At the time, given the uncertainty of the pandemic’s impact upon economic demand, as of March 2020, container sector analysts were forecasting a global decline in containerised cargo volumes of about 10% year-on-year for the full year. It was in this context that, by July 2020, as initial lockdowns were lifted, circa 9% of the global container fleet capacity (in excess of 300 vessels) had been idled. As pent-up demand drove global growth, there was a rapid readjustment of liner capacity as vessels quickly rejoined their former trade routes.

Driven by an unexpected surge in demand and record profitability in the last 12 months, owners have returned to the newbuilding market to capitalise on the global requirements for additional capacity.

While war chests have evidently been sufficiently strengthened to prompt a sharp increase in tonnage acquisitions and newbuilding orders, it would be wrong to dismiss the prospect of any future risks down the line for investors.

A carbon-free maritime sector may seem a distant prospect, but the largest liner operators are aready making plans to comply with regulatory measures well in advance of the key 2050 deadline. However, many questions need to be answered and challenging decisions need to be made.

Liner spot freight rates have recently defied traditional and current logic, reaching record levels. In early-March 2020 most freight analysts predicted Armageddon for the liner sector with cargo volumes falling off the proverbial cliff. What has since transpired?

Liner operators have decided on their strategies to cater for the IMO’s low-sulphur regulations from January 2020, but their commercial reactions and costs will vary, and so will impact on profitability next year and beyond.  

The latest round of tariff increases imposed by the US on Chinese-made goods will, we believe, impose different levels of potential risk on the major liner operators. Second-time around, the wider market ramifications could also be more significant. 

Is it business as usual for ocean carriers as they continue to buy large vessel assets? In a rapidly changing market, it is important that shipping lines have sufficient liquidity to pay for assets that some would argue are, in certain cases, not even required.

This week's Insight has come from one of our new colleagues and industry veteran Neil Dekker, formerly of Drewry and the Informa and Safmarine groups, who has covered the liner sector for over 25 years.