Infospectrum Insights

A return to the bad old days beckons for container tonnage providers. With container volumes dropping like a stone since February 2020, demand for chartered tonnage has also fallen away – tonnage providers are looking at a bleak near-term future with no immediate kickers to push earnings back up.

We are probably all considering the reality of our lockdown lives now that the novelty has worn off and, for those of us in COVID hot spots like the UK, we face up to ‘the new normal’, whatever that may be.

Back in the golden days of working from offices, there was apparently a thing known as “my word is my bond”.

The rollercoaster that is today’s West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures market promises to give everyone connected to oil derivatives trading a very interesting ride in the weeks and months ahead.

Yet again, we, as risk analysts, have to pick apart a major corporate failure and see what could have been done differently. How can lessons be learned, and models adjusted, in the future?

Being a risk manager nowadays requires an enormous range of skills and knowledge, covering compliance, pricing, credit, operational and market risk, geopolitics, sanctions, and deep commercial awareness. Throw in the unfolding impact of the Covid-19 pandemic (not least on the availability of sources), and it’s hardly surprising that in the fast-paced world of shipping and commodities, the importance of basic “vanilla” due diligence is sidelined. 

With a sharp downturn in prices and unclear future demand, the oil industry is facing major challenges in the wake of COVID-19. How will it adjust? What changes will we see? And, what are the implications for risk analysts across the industry? 

Container rate fundamentals have remained solid so far, but future western demand and its supply chain handling ability is a serious concern.

Certain tanker sectors have ridden a series of exceptional events to net exceptional returns. 

It is hard to find anybody who is prepared to underplay the impact of COVID-19 on the dry bulk market today.