Infospectrum Insights

Liner operators have decided on their strategies to cater for the IMO’s low-sulphur regulations from January 2020, but their commercial reactions and costs will vary, and so will impact on profitability next year and beyond.  

Rogue ship operators who switch off or manipulate AIS data to hide potentially illegal operations with sanctioned countries are a hot topic at the moment, but more stringent monitoring action is required by industry stakeholders to ensure they remain compliant.

The escalation of political strains between the US and Iran seen in recent weeks has added more uncertainty to global energy and shipping markets. The sensitivity arises from the status of the Strait of Hormuz, the 33km-wide sea channel which separates Iran from Oman, and through which around 20% of global oil supply passes.

Political & Country risk has always been very much in the limelight, and we are currently seeing numerous examples play out in countries all over the world. Our Americas team has been monitoring their local region closely, and here provides a case study of sorts, which highlights some of the complications businesses with international interests and investments can face. 

The boom in liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade shows no signs of abating, with globally-traded volumes likely to edge up towards 350million tonnes (mt) in 2019. LNG is seen as complementary to climate targets and offers diversification from reliance on pipeline gas. The key demand driver is China, which will soon overtake Japan as "number-one" LNG importer. Activity is rising in Europe, too, with Germany soon to join the ranks of buyers.

You only have to look at the headlines of the last few weeks to know that the current market conditions represent a perfect storm for those concerned about compliance. How does an industry which has always worked around the edges of the possible (and occasionally the legal) find a way through?

The latest round of tariff increases imposed by the US on Chinese-made goods will, we believe, impose different levels of potential risk on the major liner operators. Second-time around, the wider market ramifications could also be more significant. 

It’s reporting season again, a time when nerds such as ourselves get excited about seeing whether estimations about last year’s performance of the companies we cover were accurate, and finding that extra nugget of information buried in note 148b. However, 2019 has brought with it challenges which may undermine the value of past financials.

This week's Insight has come from Infospectrum alumnus Ian Staples, who has been keeping an eye on movements in the major South African coal export point, Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT).

A key member of our Americas team, Luciano Mezzalira, is a proud Venezuelan, and has been following the ongoing political crisis in the country.  We've covered the challenges of compliance issues in our earlier article. In our latest piece, Luciano covers the issues surrounding national oil company Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), and how this is impacting its exposure to the shipping markets.